Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1654
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
DL 1654 · MCO → MSP
departs 9:01 AM ET · arrives 11:33 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 9%
Fri 10/30 11%
Sat 10/31 16%
Sun 11/1 14%
Mon 11/2 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.