Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1683
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
DL 1683 · MSP → SAN
departs 10:15 AM CT · arrives 12:07 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 19%
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 22%
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.23 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.