Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1701
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
DL 1701 · SMF → MSP
departs 1:19 PM PT · arrives 6:48 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 12%
Fri 10/30 12%
Sat 10/31 13%
Sun 11/1 17%
Mon 11/2 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at MSP that day
↑
Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
This flight has been late 9% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.