Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1770
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
DL 1770 · SAN → MSP
departs 3:31 PM PT · arrives 9:03 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 19%
Fri 10/30 23%
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 21%
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at MSP that day
↑
3pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.