Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1827
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
DL 1827 · ORD → LGA
departs 5:54 PM CT · arrives 9:08 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 42%
Fri 10/30 62%
Sat 10/31 39%
Sun 11/1 58%
Mon 11/2 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±6 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.