Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1827
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
DL 1827 · ORD → LGA
departs 5:54 PM CT · arrives 9:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Wed 10/28 26%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 62%
Sat 10/31 39%
Sun 11/1 58%
Mon 11/2 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
5pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.