Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1878
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
DL 1878 · CUN → MSP
departs 2:09 PM EST · arrives 6:31 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 20%
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31 16%
Sun 11/1 15%
Mon 11/2 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±5 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave CUN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at MSP that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at CUN
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
CUN (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.