Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2415
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
DL 2415 · MSP → PDX
departs 8:40 AM CT · arrives 10:20 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 8%
Fri 10/30 10%
Sat 10/31 16%
Sun 11/1 13%
Mon 11/2 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at PDX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PDX?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 28 kt forecast at PDX that day
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
PDX usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.23 in
PDX (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.21 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.