Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2561
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
DL 2561 · LGA → MCO
departs 5:59 PM ET · arrives 9:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 26%
Fri 10/30 55%
Sat 10/31 27%
Sun 11/1 45%
Mon 11/2 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±6 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
5pm departures from LGA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.