Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2561
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
DL 2561 · LGA → MCO
departs 5:59 PM ET · arrives 9:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Wed 10/28 25%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 55%
Sat 10/31 27%
Sun 11/1 45%
Mon 11/2 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
5pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.