Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2946
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
DL 2946 · BZN → MSP
departs 1:54 PM MT · arrives 5:12 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 13%
Fri 10/30 14%
Sat 10/31 15%
Sun 11/1 13%
Mon 11/2 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave BZN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at MSP that day
↑
Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BZN
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BZN (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.