DL 8840 · MSP → SAT

took off 8:29 AM CT · expected to land 10:56 AM CT (scheduled 8:11 AM CT → 11:06 AM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

2% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

LIVE

On time or early
98%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, thunderstorms forecast at MSP that day

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ SAT is prone to delays

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.35 in

SAT (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 8840 · MSP → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?