Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1085
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Today
F9 1085 · MCO → PHX
departs 6:50 PM ET · arrives 8:39 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 28%
Fri 10/30 41%
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 29%
Mon 11/2 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±3 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.