Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1085
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
F9 1085 · MCO → PHX
departs 6:46 PM ET · arrives 8:27 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Thu 10/29 31%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 29%
Mon 11/2 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
6pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at MCO that day
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.63 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.