Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2868
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
F9 2868 · MCO → SJU
departs 2:40 PM ET · arrives 5:52 PM AT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 38%
Fri 10/30 34%
Sat 10/31 28%
Sun 11/1 35%
Mon 11/2 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±5 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
2pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJU
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
SJU (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.