Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2868
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
F9 2868 · MCO → SJU
departs 2:39 PM ET · arrives 5:49 PM AT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Wed 10/28 30%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 34%
Sat 10/31 28%
Sun 11/1 35%
Mon 11/2 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
SJU (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.