F9 3469 · MCO → IAH

departs 7:05 PM ET · arrives 8:50 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±3 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts33 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

IAH (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 3469 · MCO → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?