Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3469
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
F9 3469 · MCO → IAH
departs 7:49 PM ET · arrives 9:28 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 34%
Sat 10/31 24%
Sun 11/1 36%
Mon 11/2 36%
Tue 11/3 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±4 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
7pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
IAH (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.