Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4173
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
F9 4173 · PHL → MCO
departs 2:47 PM ET · arrives 5:23 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 21%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 46%
Fri 10/30 50%
Sat 10/31 31%
Sun 11/1 42%
Mon 11/2 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±8 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
20%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
20%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.