Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4173
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
F9 4173 · PHL → MCO
departs 3:26 PM ET · arrives 6:01 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Wed 10/28 37%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 50%
Sat 10/31 31%
Sun 11/1 42%
Mon 11/2 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.