Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4190
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Today
F9 4190 · CMH → MCO
departs 6:11 PM ET · arrives 8:36 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 37%
Fri 10/30 25%
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 34%
Mon 11/2 22%
Tue 11/3 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±7 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
10%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.