Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4190
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
F9 4190 · CMH → MCO
departs 6:10 PM ET · arrives 8:34 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 25%
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 34%
Mon 11/2 22%
Tue 11/3 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±1 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at MCO that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.