Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4559
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
F9 4559 · IAD → DFW
departs 12:25 PM ET · arrives 2:44 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 33%
Fri 10/30 37%
Sat 10/31 30%
Sun 11/1 40%
Mon 11/2 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
IAD is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.