Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4559
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
F9 4559 · IAD → DFW
departs 12:25 PM ET · arrives 2:31 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Wed 10/28 23%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 37%
Sat 10/31 30%
Sun 11/1 40%
Mon 11/2 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Cloud base down to 100 ft forecast at IAD that day
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.