Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4837
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Today
F9 4837 · MCO → IND
departs 5:54 PM ET · arrives 8:34 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 26%
Fri 10/30 27%
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 23%
Mon 11/2 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IND
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.