Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4837
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
F9 4837 · MCO → IND
departs 5:43 PM ET · arrives 8:22 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 26%
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 23%
Mon 11/2 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
IND usually runs smoothly
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.