FI 656 · MSP → KEF

departs 7:23 PM CT · arrives 6:55 AM GMT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at KEF more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±6 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to KEF?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MSP that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from MSP are often late

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.28 in

KEF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

FI 656 · MSP → KEF

Odds over time

How late will it get to KEF?