Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LUFTHANSA · FLIGHT LH 459
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
LH 459 · SFO → MUC
departs 9:26 PM PT · arrives 5:06 PM CET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 13%
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31 11%
Sun 11/1 18%
Mon 11/2 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at MUC more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
7.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MUC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at MUC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MUC?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SFO is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MUC (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.