Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LUFTHANSA · FLIGHT LH 459
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
LH 459 · SFO → MUC
departs 9:24 PM PT · arrives 4:14 PM CET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Wed 10/28 9%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31 11%
Sun 11/1 18%
Mon 11/2 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at MUC more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±5 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MUC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at MUC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MUC?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MUC
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MUC (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.