LO 30 · MIA → WAW

departs 8:31 PM ET · arrives 11:24 AM CET

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at WAW more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to WAW?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into WAW at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,286 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

WAW (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

LO 30 · MIA → WAW

Odds over time

How late will it get to WAW?