Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3419
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Today
MQ 3419 · PHX → IAH
departs 7:14 PM MT · arrives 11:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/30 44%
Sun 11/1 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.