Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3419
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3419 · PHX → IAH
departs 6:58 PM MT · arrives 11:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
6pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.82 in
IAH (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.