Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3689
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
MQ 3689 · MIA → EYW
departs 3:59 PM ET · arrives 5:04 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 12%
Fri 10/30 22%
Sat 10/31 17%
Sun 11/1 16%
Mon 11/2 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at EYW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EYW?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 28 kt forecast at EYW that day
↑
3pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
This flight has been late 15% of the time recently
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,967 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.24 in
EYW (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.