Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3780
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
MQ 3780 · AXA → MIA
departs 2:59 PM AST · arrives 6:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/28
Sat 10/31 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave AXA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
2pm departures from AXA are usually not late
Weather at each end
AXA (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,967 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.24 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.