Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3787
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Today
MQ 3787 · MFE → DFW
departs 8:04 PM CT · arrives 9:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 26%
Fri 10/30 24%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave MFE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
Weather at each end
MFE (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 8,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.