Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3861
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
MQ 3861 · CMH → DCA
departs 6:01 AM ET · arrives 7:28 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 5%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 7%
Fri 10/30 14%
Sat 10/31 7%
Sun 11/1 13%
Mon 11/2 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.