Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3893
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Today
MQ 3893 · DFW → PIA
departs 9:25 PM CT · arrives 11:33 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31 16%
Sun 11/1 23%
Mon 11/2 21%
Tue 11/3 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIA more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at PIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to PIA?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
9pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
PIA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 8,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.