Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3893
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 3893 · DFW → PIA
departs 9:23 PM CT · arrives 11:28 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 18%
Sat 10/31 16%
Sun 11/1 23%
Mon 11/2 21%
Tue 11/3 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIA more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±2 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at PIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PIA?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PIA
↓
MQ's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
PIA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.