Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3953
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
MQ 3953 · MIA → JAX
departs 4:25 PM ET · arrives 5:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30 31%
Sat 10/31 23%
Sun 11/1 23%
Mon 11/2 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±4 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into JAX at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
JAX usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,967 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.24 in
JAX (destination)
Gusts 31 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.