Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3966
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
MQ 3966 · TLH → MIA
departs 3:40 PM ET · arrives 5:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 52%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 36%
Fri 10/30 35%
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave TLH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TLH
Weather at each end
TLH (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,633 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.24 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.