Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4074
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
MQ 4074 · BUF → DCA
departs 5:57 PM ET · arrives 7:33 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 23%
Fri 10/30 32%
Sat 10/31 23%
Sun 11/1 31%
Mon 11/2 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF
Weather at each end
BUF (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.