Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4117 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

MQ 4117 · ORD → FWA

departs 8:47 AM CT · arrives 10:51 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 33h before departure

Arrive at FWA more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FWA?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FWA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4117 · ORD → FWA

Odds over time

How late will it get to FWA?