Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4117
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
MQ 4117 · ORD → FWA
departs 8:45 AM CT · arrives 10:45 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Wed 10/28 7%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 12%
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 13%
Mon 11/2 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at FWA more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FWA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at FWA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FWA?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8am departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
FWA usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FWA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.