Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4141
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
MQ 4141 · IND → DCA
departs 3:08 PM ET · arrives 4:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30 25%
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 16%
Mon 11/2 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IND
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.