Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4154
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Today
MQ 4154 · PHX → CRQ
departs 8:41 PM MT · arrives 2:03 AM -03
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 18%
Fri 10/30 31%
Sun 11/1 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at CRQ more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at CRQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to CRQ?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
This flight has been late 18% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CRQ (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.