Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4154
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 4154 · PHX → CRQ
departs 8:36 PM MT · arrives 1:56 AM -03
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/29 18%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at CRQ more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at CRQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to CRQ?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Arrivals into CRQ at that hour are usually not late
↓
CRQ usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.82 in
CRQ (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.