Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4164
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Today
MQ 4164 · DFW → MLU
departs 5:03 PM CT · arrives 6:22 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 13%
Fri 10/30 10%
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1 17%
Mon 11/2 18%
Tue 11/3 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MLU more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MLU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at MLU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to MLU?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MLU (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.