Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4164
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 4164 · DFW → MLU
departs 5:01 PM CT · arrives 6:16 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 11%
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1 17%
Mon 11/2 18%
Tue 11/3 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MLU more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MLU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at MLU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MLU?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MLU
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 8.33333 mi Precip 0.02 in
MLU (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.