Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4228
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
MQ 4228 · TPA → MIA
departs 3:40 PM ET · arrives 4:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30 32%
Sat 10/31 27%
Sun 11/1 27%
Mon 11/2 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at TPA that day
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.