Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4262
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Today
MQ 4262 · DFW → JAN
departs 7:25 PM CT · arrives 8:56 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 26%
Fri 10/30 18%
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 29%
Mon 11/2 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAN more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at JAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to JAN?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JAN
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
JAN (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.